Yearender: German export to remain worlds biggest in 2008, difficult year ahead

By Wu Liming

BERLIN, Dec. 19 (Xinhua) -- Germany, the world's biggest exporter since 2003, is expected to retain the title in 2008, but its exports will face severe challenges in 2009 because of the worldwide economic downturn and recession.

2008 EXPORT CHAMPION ALMOST CERTAIN

Germany has worn the crown as the "champion of exports" since 2003. Since last year, however, the robust growth of Chinese exports has put Germany under pressure of losing the championship.

Last week, German Economy Minister Michael Glos said that the country has a good chance of remaining the world's biggest exporter in 2008.

In an interview with German daily the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Glos said the latest figures from the World Trade Organization (WTO) show Germany is well positioned to surpass China again with its exports this year.

"The preliminary data prove that Germany can remain export world champion again in 2008," he claimed.

The WTO figures indicated that Germany had exported 1.157 trillion U.S. dollars worth of goods by the end of September. German Federal Statistical Office said on Dec. 9 that German exports hit 89.7 billion euros (around 115.3 billion dollars) in October. In other words, German exports in the first 10 months of this year stood at around 1.272 trillion dollars.

Figures from China General Administration of Customs (CGAC) show that China's exported goods worth 1.202 trillion dollars in the first 10 months of this year, lagging behind Germany by just around 70 billion dollars.

As the largest economy in the European Union (EU) and the third-largest in the world, Germany claims its leading position in exports as a result of its advantages in industrial manufacturing and technology.

Germany has long been the world leader in mechanical engineering, holding about 20 percent of the global market.

Core German exports include such engineering products as vehicles, machinery, chemical equipments, electronics, shipbuilding and optics. German brands, including DalmerChrysler, BMW, SAP, Siemens, Volkswagen, Adidas-Salomon and Porsche, are among the highest-valued in the world.

CHALLENGES FROM CHINA

Over the past two years, Germany has been faced with challenges from China, and the neck-to-neck race between the world's two leading exporting countries has been closely followed by economic observers.

Over the past decade, the Chinese economy saw sustained robust expansion, in which foreign trade played a vital role.

Figures from the CGAC show that from 2002 to 2007, the annual growth rate of China's foreign trade stood at as high as 28.5 percent. In 2007, China's trade volume hit 2.17 trillion dollars, the third biggest in the world, among which the export was 1.22 trillion dollars, up 25.7 percent over the previous year.

German Federal Statistical Office said German exports expanded to 969.1 billion euros (around 1.354 trillion dollars) in 2007, up8.5 percent over the previous year.

According to latest figures from the WTO, German exports in the first nine months of this year were up 20.3 percent compared with the same period in 2007 while Chinese exports grew by 22.3 percent.

As the margin of exports between the two export powerhouses is becoming increasingly smaller, just as the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung put it out: "It is only a matter of time before the faster-growing Chinese economy becomes the world's biggest exporter of goods."